By Chris Forrester
The 2025 SmallSat Symposium opened on February 4 with a session which looked at the Risks, Realities and Regulations which shape the SmallSat market. Moderated by Janna Lewis (SVP/Policy & General Counsel, Astroscale US) the panel of acknowledged experts examined the challenges and agreed that a core truth was that the industry had to constantly navigate the challenges which inevitably could directly affect a business. She explained that it was generally accepted that the sector was enjoying a 30% CAGR.
Dr. Abhishek Tripathi, Director of Mission Operations, UC Berkeley, Space Sciences Lab., agreed that growth would continue and that the new Trump administration would be favourable although the risks were that the product market fit – and their product fit – was key. “Are there cheaper large sats coming onto the market, and this is a risk”.
Robert Cleave, COO, Neo Space Group, agreed with the sector’s prospects. But he cautioned that almost every proposal once suggested ended up by changing the parameters of their intentions. He said he believed that space was a unifier, and keen to share risk. He said the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, where he was based, was very much looking at the sharing of risk to ensure a success to its investment plans.
Drew Svor, partner with Sheppard Mullin, suggested that the risks, whether commercial or technical, or regulatory and geo-political meant that players had to be very flexible, and be aware of those risks and challenges. He said that the new Trump administration would need some time to make their demands known. He warned that SmallSat manufacturers needed to be aware of Cyber security demands. He also hoped that some of the current congestion in some of the frequency bands needed to be addressed although was hopeful that regulators were aware of this congestion and the need to solve the problems. He also forecast the new administration would be open to foreign cash coming in.
Stewart Marsh, Head of Aerospace, Cambridge Consultants, explained that risks came down to choices and trade-offs. There are manufacturers out there who know their business very well, but SmallSat operators had to be aware that changing the model, for any reason, meant risk and knowing how to mitigate those risks was crucial. Mr Marsh also said that standards-based developments, such as Direct-To-Device services, were extremely important and frequently a partner would be needed to help with the adjacent opportunities. This included AI in networks, and the AI problems were a greater magnitude of challenge in space but AI could definitely help in spectrum, for example.
Sita Sonty, Partner & MD, Alix Partners, and very interested in the investment opportunities. She argued that the cynic in her saw technical mitigation being less important. “I am not at all sure that the SmallSat market must look closely at commercial conversion. They must sell better – and sell the right thing, and listen more to what the market wants. People also need to talk to the government more, and in particular what it wants in space.” She also stressed that AI had to be recognised as likely to have a growing importance.
Dr. Tripathi said he felt that government, based on previous experience, was often fragmented in its procurement. The military and NASA wanted dedicated bespoke satellites, “but in our sector our SmallSat developers cannot put all their efforts into one satellite version. There are solutions, and a commercial company can then supply a more flexible architecture and make some money.”
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