On January 28, 2026, the Government Accountability Office (GAO) released a critical report titled “Missile Warning Satellites: Space Development Agency Should Be More Realistic and Transparent About Risks to Capability Delivery” (GAO-26-107085).

The congressional watchdog warned that the Space Development Agency (SDA) is overestimating the technology readiness of critical elements within its Tracking Layer constellation, potentially jeopardizing its ability to field hypersonic missile defense capabilities on schedule.

Acting Director Dr. Gurpartap “GP” Sandhoo remains the official head of the Space Development Agency (SDA) as of January 28, 2026, and he is navigating a period of significant institutional pressure. This newly released Government Accountability Office (GAO) report (GAO-26-107085) has flagged critical risks in the agency’s flagship missile-tracking program, placing the SDA’s rapid acquisition model—and by extension, its current leadership—under intense federal oversight.

Technological Maturity and Contractor Delays

According to the GAO, the SDA’s current strategy of rapid, biennial “tranches” has led to unplanned work as contractors struggle to modify commercial spacecraft for specialized military missions. While the agency has reported achieving early milestones for the Proliferated Warfighter Space Architecture (PWSA), the GAO asserts these reports fail to reflect underlying schedule risks.

Perhaps most significantly, the report highlights that the SDA and its partners have yet to fully demonstrate the generation of timely, three-dimensional tracks on the ground—a baseline requirement for countering hypersonic glide vehicles.

Budgetary Scale and Contractual Scope

The Tracking Layer is a massive procurement effort aimed at deploying hundreds of satellites in Low Earth Orbit (LEO). As of January 2026:

• Total Investment: The PWSA is projected to cost nearly $35 billion through fiscal year 2029.
• Active Contracts: Over $4.7 billion has been awarded for the first 101 satellites.
• Key Primes: Major contractors including Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman, and L3Harris are currently developing satellites for Tranches 1 and 2 of the Tracking Layer.

Criticism of the Requirements Process

The GAO report also flagged a lack of transparency between the SDA and the combatant commands that will ultimately use the data. Combatant commanders reported having “insufficient insight” into how the SDA defines requirements or whether the planned capabilities will meet operational needs for missile warning and tracking (MW/MT).

Under the leadership of Dr. Gurpartap “GP” Sandhoo, who assumed the role in September 2025, the agency has maintained its “constructive disruptor” status, awarding contracts every two years regardless of previous satellite performance. The GAO recommends moving toward an “architecture-level schedule” to better understand how delays in individual tranches impact the overall delivery of global missile defense.

Path Forward and Air Force Oversight

The GAO has recommended that the Secretary of the Air Force ensure the SDA follows a more collaborative process with warfighter participants to define and prioritize requirements. Additionally, the report urges the Department of Defense to create a reliable life-cycle cost estimate, noting that limited cost data was collected for Tranches 1 and 2.

The Tracking Layer is intended to provide global “stereo” coverage for missile defense, replacing legacy systems like SBIRS with a more resilient, proliferated mesh network by the end of the decade.

Chris Forrester — CE Noticias Financieras (CENF), a well-regarded university-backed financial publication which focuses on Latino and Iberian financial news, suggests in a Jan 19 feature story that “Elon Musk has lost the space mobile race before it has even begun.”  The report says bluntly: “The fiercest space race isn’t about returning to the moon.

It’s about allowing you to make a TikTok or watch Netflix on your phone anywhere on the planet, from the salt flats of Atacama to the dunes of Khongor in the Gobi Desert. To make this happen, two radically different design philosophies are at war, and several companies are building the infrastructure needed to ensure that every phone on the planet is permanently connected to the Internet.”

CENF compares and contrasts the two very active players, saying correctly that on the one hand there’s Elon Musk’s SpaceX and its Starlink system, and the other being AST SpaceMobile (AST), and the other wannabee Chinese players along with Amazon’s LEO and a handful of much smaller would-be operators.

But since the story was published we’ve had Jeff Bezos and his Blue Origin rocket company announce their TeraWave mega-constellation. Some observers are wondering why Bezos/Blue Origin is backing TeraWave, and sister business Amazon is backing its Amazon Leo broadband system, which would also impact the Starlink vs AST argument.

The focus on AST is justified. While Starlink has its direct relationship with consumers (currently more than 9 million, and probably well on its way to 10 million by February). But AST wants to supply its dozens of telco partners with barely 100 satellites in orbit (Elon currently has more than 9000 in orbit and wants 34,400). AST is not looking for its own relationship with consumers, depending on revenue shares with the likes of AT&T, Verizon, Vodafone, Rakuten and its many other telco friends around the world.

The eventual prize is cellular freedom and connectivity for users, or to repeat the old Martini advert: “Anytime, any place, anywhere” on the planet.

Four investment banks (Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase, and Morgan Stanley according to the Financial Times) are drooling with the prospects of mounting an IPO this year for SpaceX, but AST is already publicly quoted and bankers are deep in their fiscal examinations and due diligence on what AST might deliver as the next year or two unfolds.

Deutsche Bank, for example, on January 20 suggests it’s important that AST launch at least 4 out of its planned 5 launches by the end of March to demonstrate launch acceleration. There’s an unconfirmed launch pending with Blue Origin’s New Glenn, probably in February. They are already 6 satellites late (from December 2025), says the bank’s report or equal to two launches, so it’s almost a certainty this initial target has been missed.

“To be clear, we don’t think it matters if the timeline slips a little (eg 1 of the 5 launches scheduled by end of 1Q slips into 2Q and/or one of the 2026 planned launches spills into early 2027). The point is that AST needs to show that it can accelerate the launch cadence and deliver a 24-hour continuous service to its MNO partners in late 2026/1H27,” stated Deutsche Bank. The bank also expects new “premium service tiers” to emerge from AST’s partners and for meaningful revenues to begin flowing next year.

“We believe that AST has the MNO partnerships in place to be successful and scale its D2D business, while also adding incremental revenue in government and potentially enterprise over time,” says the bank, which has resulted in the bank upping its price target for AST from $81 to $137 per share and reiterating a “BUY” rating.

Deutsche Bank is forecasting 3 New Glenn launches and 5 Falcon 9 launches with each carrying multiple satellites.

Other bankers are also not shy in jumping into the AST prediction business. Capital market business Clear Street, for example, has also tipped AST at $137 (from $87) and repeated a “BUY” rating and its optimism helped by the US government’s award of Golden Dome contracts to AST, saying: “We remain bullish on the direct-to-cellular market, as rising competition from SpaceX/Starlink (private) is likely to push mobile network operators to rely more heavily on AST partnerships to defend subscriber bases.”

However, CE Noticias Financieras is persuaded that fewer satellites are better for humanity than more. It quotes Jonathan McDowell, an astrophysicist and acknowledged expert at the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, who says: “Personally, I prefer a smaller number of larger satellites. One reason is the risk of space collisions. If you have 10 times more satellites, you have 100 times more near misses. So, just from that point of view, consolidating into a smaller number of satellites seems more sensible.”

But that view, however, sensible, has already been lost with SpaceX’s “brute force” and proliferation of satellites. Amazon’s Project Leo plans to launch more than 3,200 satellites.  Chinese companies are planning two separate mega-constellations, Guowang and G60 Starlink, with a total of nearly 26,000 satellites, and talking of 200,000+ satellites. “We are only at the beginning of this, ” warns McDowell. “And that becomes very worrying because now it’s not just one company, it’s a lot of companies.”

Which makes any sensible forecast near-impossible. China might completely upset the apple cart, while smaller players such as Canada’s Lightspeed might also play a disruptive role, as could the likes of Lynk Global, Apple/Globalstar or Abu Dhabi’s Space42/Viasat combination. However, the laser-linked TeraWave might eliminate Rivada Space Network from the potential mix.

In a report released on Friday, January 23, 2026, the Russian aerospace company Bureau 1440 announced the postponement of its initial deployment of 16 high-speed internet satellites. Originally scheduled for late 2025, the launch of the first batch for the “Rassvet” (Dawn) Low Earth Orbit (LEO) constellation has been rescheduled for 2026.

The delay is attributed to production failures and incomplete assembly of the required spacecraft, contradicting previous government statements regarding the readiness of the fleet.

Assembly Obstacles for the Rassvet Constellation

The Rassvet project aims to provide a domestic alternative to SpaceX’s Starlink, targeting global broadband coverage. While Roscosmos Chief Dmitry Bakanov stated in September 2025 that deployment of the first 300 satellites would begin by the end of that year, industry sources now indicate that the production line has failed to meet the necessary volume. Despite the delay, Deputy Minister of Digital Development Dmitry Ugnivenko had claimed as recently as December 2025 that all 16 initial satellites were complete. Bureau 1440 currently has only six experimental satellites in orbit, launched during the Rassvet-1 and Rassvet-2 missions to test laser inter-satellite links and 5G signal compatibility.

Funding and Strategic Infrastructure Goals

The project is a central pillar of Russia’s national “Data Economy” program, with the federal budget allocating 102.8 billion rubles ($1.36 billion) toward its implementation. Bureau 1440 is expected to contribute an additional 329 billion rubles ($4.36 billion) in private investment through 2030. Each satellite is designed to operate in LEO to provide high-speed, low-latency connectivity. The broader strategic goal remains the deployment of a 900-satellite constellation by 2035, with commercial operations involving the first 250 units projected to start in 2027.

Regional Competition and Revised Launch Targets

As Bureau 1440 navigates manufacturing hurdles, regional competition is accelerating. The Ukrainian technology firm STETMAN has entered the implementation phase for its UASAT LEO project. Unlike the delayed Rassvet batch, the first Ukrainian satellite has already secured a launch slot for October 2026, with plans to build a 245-satellite communications network. Bureau 1440’s revised roadmap now targets 156 launches in 2026, followed by 292 in 2027, though reaching these milestones will require a significant stabilization of the company’s satellite assembly process.

In a decisive move to bolster national strategic autonomy, France has selected Loft Orbital to develop the nation’s first “sovereign” Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) satellite. The contract, announced on Wednesday, January 21, 2026, marks a significant shift in European defense procurement, prioritizing a sovereign-commercial hybrid model to ensure independent orbital reconnaissance capabilities.

Strategic Shift Toward National Orbital Autonomy

The partnership reflects a broader European trend of reducing reliance on foreign space infrastructure for sensitive military applications. By tapping Loft Orbital, a commercial leader in modular satellite buses and software-defined mission management, the French Ministry of Armed Forces aims to accelerate the deployment of high-resolution radar imaging that remains under direct national control. This “sovereign-commercial nexus” allows the state to leverage rapid commercial innovation cycles while maintaining strict governance over data security and tasking priority.

Technical Framework of the Sovereign SAR Mission

The spacecraft will be built upon Loft Orbital’s standard Longbow bus, which is specifically designed for rapid payload integration and on-orbit software updates. Unlike traditional optical sensors, the SAR payload will enable the French military to conduct persistent, all-weather, day-and-night surveillance of strategic interest zones. The system is expected to utilize advanced X-band or L-band radar technology to penetrate cloud cover and provide high-fidelity imagery of surface assets. A critical component of the mission is the integration of Loft’s Virtual Mission Operations Center (VMOC), which will allow French defense operators to manage the satellite as a dedicated sovereign asset within a shared-resource framework.

Bolstering ISR and National Security Programs

The development of a dedicated SAR satellite is a cornerstone of France’s updated space defense strategy, which falls under the broader category of National Security Programs. Historically, European defense entities have often relied on a mix of domestic optical satellites and bilateral sharing agreements for radar data. This new project establishes a baseline for an independent ISR (Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance) architecture that can operate without external constraints. This move is essential for maintaining the French military’s ability to monitor global hotspots and verify treaty compliance through independent space-based verification.

Sovereign Data Governance and Military Procurement

A primary driver for this contract is the requirement for absolute data sovereignty. Under the agreement, Loft Orbital will provide the technical platform, but the encrypted data downlink and tasking commands will be managed exclusively by French military personnel. This ensures that sensitive reconnaissance data does not transit through third-party commercial or foreign governmental servers, addressing a long-standing concern regarding the security of commercial satellite imagery in defense contexts. The procurement model utilized for this mission highlights a transition toward “as-a-service” models in military space, where the government pays for mission success and data delivery rather than owning the entire manufacturing supply chain.

Timeline and Future Expansion of the SAR Constellation

Initial hardware integration is slated to begin later this year, with a projected launch date in late 2027. This sovereign SAR satellite is envisioned as the pathfinder for a potential future constellation, intended to provide the French military with high-revisit rates over tactical areas of interest. The success of this pilot program will likely influence future defense budgets and procurement strategies across the European Union, as other member states look to replicate France’s model of integrating commercial agility with statist strategic requirements.

DUBAI and KYIV — On Thursday, January 15, 2026, VEON Ltd. (Nasdaq: VEON) announced that its Ukrainian subsidiary, Kyivstar, has reached 3.0 million registered users for its Starlink Direct to Cell satellite connectivity service. This milestone represents more than 10% of Kyivstar’s total mobile subscriber base and highlights the rapid adoption of non-terrestrial network (NTN) solutions in contested environments.

Rapid Adoption and Regional Resilience

Since the service was launched on November 24, 2025, subscribers have exchanged more than 1.2 million SMS messages via satellite. The technology has proven most critical in Ukraine’s southern and eastern regions, where terrestrial infrastructure is frequently compromised. Usage is currently concentrated in five major urban hubs: Kyiv, Lviv, Vinnytsia, Khmelnytskyi, and Dnipro.

The service is currently accessible at no additional cost to all 15.5 million Kyivstar 4G smartphone users through their existing tariff plans. The technology utilizes Starlink’s “cell tower in space” architecture, which employs advanced phased array antennas to connect directly to standard LTE handsets without hardware modifications.

Leadership on Strategic Connectivity

“The rapid adoption of Starlink Direct to Cell services by Kyivstar subscribers demonstrates the critical importance of enhancing Ukraine’s resilience and our customers’ appreciation for the availability of satellite-based connectivity,” said Kaan Terzioğlu, VEON Group CEO and Executive Chairman of Kyivstar. “We will continue to lead the way in providing innovative services that Ukraine needs to build its digital future.”

Central Asian Expansion and Future Outlook

The success in Ukraine is serving as a blueprint for VEON’s broader regional strategy. In November 2025, VEON’s Beeline Kazakhstan successfully completed the first Direct to Cell WhatsApp call in Central Asia. Following this pilot, Beeline Kazakhstan expects to introduce commercial SMS services via satellite in 2026, pending regulatory approvals.

Currently, SpaceX operates a constellation of approximately 650 Direct to Cell satellites in Low Earth Orbit (LEO). To support increasing demand and reduce latency, SpaceX has filed with the FCC to orbit future cellular satellites at altitudes as low as 326 km. For Kyivstar, this partnership is a key component of VEON’s broader pledge to invest $1 billion in Ukraine’s digital infrastructure between 2023 and 2027.

SOMERVILLE, Mass. — Quantum imaging startup Diffraqtion has secured $4.2 million in pre-seed funding to deploy satellite constellations equipped with proprietary “quantum cameras” designed to bypass traditional optical limits.

The round, announced Jan. 13, was led by QDNL Participations, with additional backing from milemark•capital, Aether VC, ADIN, and Offline Ventures. The total capital includes a non-dilutive DARPA Small Business Innovation Research (SBIR) Direct-to-Phase 2 contract focused on space situational awareness (SSA).

Breaking the Diffraction Limit Diffraqtion’s payload targets the physical “diffraction limit” that restricts the resolution of conventional optical systems based on aperture size. The company’s technology utilizes photon-counting sensors and AI-driven processing to extract higher-fidelity data from incoming light. According to the company, the system offers up to 20 times the resolution and 1,000 times the processing speed of standard cameras.

This architecture is designed to enable small satellites to capture imagery comparable to much larger, heavier telescope systems. The technology aims to support both commercial Earth observation and defense applications, including orbital debris tracking and intelligence gathering.

Leadership and Heritage Spun out of MIT and the University of Maryland, Diffraqtion was co-founded by CEO Johannes Galatsanos, CTO Christine Wang, and Chief Scientific Advisor Saikat Guha. Guha, a professor at the University of Maryland, previously led research with NASA and DARPA that forms the basis of the company’s intellectual property.

The leadership team also includes Head of Product Mark Michael, the former CTO and co-founder of Kepler Communications, who brings operational experience from deploying low Earth orbit (LEO) constellations.

Operational Timeline Diffraqtion is currently refining its hardware as part of the U.S. Space Force Apollo Accelerator. The company plans to conduct “on-sky” demonstrations using ground-based telescopes at the University of California Observatories in early 2026. These tests will validate the sensor’s performance through atmospheric turbulence before the technology is integrated into a space-based platform for orbital demonstration.

The company stated the technology is also being integrated into military defense architectures in collaboration with Space Systems Command.

HERNDON, Va. — On Thursday, January 15, 2026, TrustPoint announced the first successful demonstration of its Low Earth Orbit Navigation System (LEONS), transmitting time-transfer and tracking signals from a compact ground node to an orbiting spacecraft.

This milestone marks a significant step in the company’s mission to provide a commercial, GPS-independent positioning, navigation, and timing (PNT) capability for satellite operators.

Ground-to-Space Validation via SpaceWERX

The demonstration was conducted as part of the SpaceWERX AltPNT Challenge, a program designed to rapidly field resilient alternatives to legacy Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS). TrustPoint was previously awarded two Direct-to-Phase II contracts by SpaceWERX to accelerate the transition of its C-band LEO architecture from concept to operational deployment. The successful signal transmission validates the “LEONS” ground infrastructure, which is designed to be a rapidly deployable and scalable solution for global PNT coverage.

Addressing Orbital Vulnerabilities

Most Low Earth Orbit (LEO) spacecraft currently rely on GPS or other Medium Earth Orbit (MEO) signals for orbital state and timing data. However, the increasing prevalence of jamming and electronic interference in LEO has created a critical vulnerability, often degrading or completely denying these essential links. TrustPoint’s architecture aims to eliminate this single point of failure by providing an independent, high-performance PNT layer that remains operational in contested environments. This development follows the company’s successful launch and contact with its third satellite in 2023, which served as the primary testbed for these core technologies.

Leadership on Resilient Capabilities

“With the pace of modern threats accelerating, the difference between concepts and capabilities matters,” said Nicole Hilliard, Director of Government Programs at TrustPoint. “This milestone demonstrates that commercial partners can field resilient, GPS-independent PNT capabilities that strengthen national security architectures and justify continued investment in companies that deliver.”

Commercial and Defense Implications

The transition to a GPS-independent architecture is a priority for the U.S. Space Force as it seeks to operationalize the “Proliferated Warfighter” concept. TrustPoint’s C-band service is designed to provide secure, high-precision timing that is less susceptible to the vulnerabilities of heritage L-band signals. Beyond defense applications, the technology is targeted at the emerging autonomous navigation and smart infrastructure markets, where sub-meter precision and high availability are mandatory requirements.

Scaling Toward a 300-Satellite Constellation

Following this successful ground-to-space transmission, TrustPoint plans to scale its LEONS infrastructure to support other LEO operators seeking resilient timing. The company is currently moving out of its internal R&D phase and into broader operational testing with both government and commercial partners. Long-term, TrustPoint aims to deploy a constellation of approximately 300 spacecraft to provide global, commercial GPS-equivalent services with improved security and lower latency.